There is a very interesting development in computing
devices, namely the separation of interfaces from the rest of the computer.
Cloud services, new devices like netbooks and new peripherals like Google Glass and Pebble
smart watches divide the
integrated computing devices of yesteryear into distinctly separate interface
devices and processing devices.
Desktops, laptops and smartphones are all quite
integrated, they are essentially complete computers in different sizes. Now
that our computing is increasingly done in the cloud, our gadgets become
focused on offering powerful, slick interaction with remotely hosted
applications and content.
This trend has several interesting consequences.
Interface devices like smart glasses, watches and portable screens can be
upgraded separately from the silicon in the datacenter that provides muscle.
Rather than shelling out for a Dell XPS or MacBook Pro with all the trimmings, it will soon be possible to buy an interface device like a tablet and use it for
quite a while, without foregoing the benefits of regular increases in computing
power.
Of course Apple and Samsung want everyone to buy a new
flagship phone every year or two, but there has been a noticeable plateau of
development in recent handsets. Adding gimmicks is not quite the same as new
features, much to the dismay of Samsung's recently
departed head of mobile design.
It's high time that services and interfaces become the competitive
differentiators, not the silicon underneath.
Using the same hardware for a longer time is also a
lot more sustainable. Rather than tossing out a plasticy handset full of rare
earths every year, having a trusty device to access online services for a
couple of years saves tons of resources. Your 'internet device' could get a
similar lifecycle to TV's, which have offered access to an ever wider array of
services while being upgraded only once or twice per decade in most homes.
Service providers have a huge advantage over handset
makers: customer data, workflows and online interaction with colleagues and
friends become finely interwoven with the service over time. This builds very
strong customer loyalty. I'm utterly useless without my Evernote and IQTELL subscriptions, for example. Also the R&D
cycle of web services is a lot friendlier, allowing easy iteration of features
and improvements with a constant revenue stream, rather than the billion-dollar
gamble of developing a new device. There are good reasons to primarily sell
services rather than hardware, and I wonder when the change of emphasis will
occur.
For now the iPhone remains a much more compelling
product than iCloud, but only because the app ecosystem runs on the iPhone hardware
rather than the iCloud platform. When Microsoft, Apple and Google have finished
their current transformations there will be little to distinguish a desktop
application from a mobile app from a web service, except the screen you view it
on. That is when the time is ripe to complete the separation described here.